Betting Tools Glossary
Quick definitions for the terms, metrics, and labels you'll see throughout The Players Club. This page is for education only and is not betting or financial advice.
Arbitrage ("Arb")
An opportunity to bet multiple sides of the same market at different sportsbooks in a way that locks in a profit regardless of who wins. In our cards, these are labeled as ARBITRAGE.
+EV Bet (Positive Expected Value)
A bet where our estimated fair odds imply that the sportsbook is underpricing the true probability. Over a large sample of similar bets, +EV positions are expected (but not guaranteed) to be profitable.
Fair Probability
Our estimate of each side's true win probability after removing sportsbook vig. We start from the average market prices across books, back out the implied probabilities, normalize them so they sum to 100%, and then show those adjusted percentages for each side.
Market Vig
The built-in edge (margin) the market is charging on a matchup. It's calculated as the sum of the implied probabilities from the average market prices minus 100%. Higher vig means you're paying more to bet that market.
Kelly Stake (Bet Size)
A recommended bet size based on the Kelly criterion. Given your simulated stake input and our fair probability estimate, Kelly computes a fraction of your bankroll that would maximize long-term growth for that edge. We show the full Kelly stake for educational purposes only; many bettors prefer to bet a fraction of Kelly (for example, half Kelly) to reduce volatility and drawdowns.
Expected Value (EV)
The edge on a bet, expressed as a percentage. It compares the best available price to our fair price. A +5% EV means that, according to our model, every dollar staked has an average expected return of $1.05 over many trials.
ROI on Arbs
For arbitrage plays, ROI represents the guaranteed percentage return on the combined stake across all sides. The "Guaranteed Profit" value in each arb card multiplies this ROI by your simulated stake to show a dollar profit if you size the arb according to the displayed stakes.
Arb-Breaker Risk
A heuristic score indicating how likely it is that an apparent arb exists because of stale or isolated lines that may move or be voided. High risk typically means one side is a significant outlier relative to the rest of the market or only one book is posting that price. Low risk suggests the prices are supported by multiple books and are less fragile.
Safe Arbs Only Toggle
When enabled on the Opportunities page, this filter shows only arbitrage plays with low or no arb-breaker risk. It removes higher-risk outliers where books are more likely to move or void bets before you can lock in the full position.
Simulated Stake
The stake input at the top of the Opportunities grid. This value is not connected to any sportsbook account; it simply drives the dollar figures shown for guaranteed profit, Kelly stake, and estimated profit so you can see how different bet sizes scale.
Books / Sportsbooks
The regulated operators we pull odds from (for example, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, etc.). The Sportsbooks filter lets you include or exclude lines from specific books when scanning for opportunities.
Market Types
We currently classify plays into Moneyline, Spread, Total, and Player Prop markets. Each market type has its own fair probability and edge calculations, but the core ideas of arbitrage and +EV apply across all of them.